November 17,2020
The latest round of news reports, revealing Trump administration’s expected drawdown of troops from Afghanistan, comes in line with his recent shuffling in Department of Defense (DoD). The drawdown of the troops could be seen as a fulfillment of his long-held rhetoric of his twice Presidential campaigns, stressing on US’ troops getting back home. President Trump in one of his recent tweets also mentioned calling back the US troops by Christmas, 2020.
The drawdown is expected from 4,500 to 2,500 in case of Afghanistan and from 3,000 to 2,500 in case of Iraq, by January 15, 2021. However, such an order comes also against the warnings and recommendations of some of the top DoD officials, given the fragile state of affairs in Afghanistan. Reportedly, the outgoing Secretary of Defense, Mark Esper, in a classified memo to the White House, also cautioned against the US troops withdrawal, until conditions regarding troops withdrawal were favorable in Afghanistan.
Trump seems to be determined on withdrawing troops from Afghanistan, as soon after US Presidential elections, he purged top Defense Department officials and replaced them with likeminded officials. these changes were made as the officials at DoD were not meeting his priorities and long-standing concerns regarding US’ military troops. His National Security Advisor Robert O Brien, Acting Defense Secretary Christopher Miller and now Advisor to acting Defense Secretary-Col. Mac Gregor, are all too eager on troops withdrawal from Afghanistan.
Given the escalating violence and stalled Afghan peace process, these changes and expected troops withdrawal are a source of concern for senior military leaders, with many advising drawdown to be pushed to the spring 2021. These concerns are not confined to the military circles only but to veteran politicians as well. Such as, US’ Senate majority leader Mitch McConnel has likened this situation to US troops withdrawal from Iraq, in 2011, under Obama administration, fueling the rise of Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) and new round of global terrorism.
While the decision for troops withdrawal might serve to fulfill the agenda of some, but given the history of US premature exit as in case of Iraq, the risks related to peace and stability in Afghanistan would run high.
The author Tooba Altaf is an International Relations graduate while working as a Researcher at Center for Research and Security Studies, Islamabad(CRSS).
© Center for Research and Security Studies (CRSS) and Afghan Studies Center (ASC), Islamabad.
