May 25, 2021
Imtiaz Gul
The US search for military bases in the region for its post-Afghan withdrawal counter-terrorism deployments/operations received a serious blow when Zamir Kabulov, the Russian special envoy for Afghanistan, almost ruled out the option of US basing its CT forces in Central Asia.
“Our contacts with our Tajik and Uzbek partners indicate that there was no official request to them [from the United States for military bases on the territory of Tajikistan and Uzbekistan]. Secondly, they made it clear that this was impossible. Therefore, there is no particular need to counteract this,” Kabulov explained in an interview with Itar-Tass news agency.
So we don’t need to worry too much about this,” Kabulov said.
The Wall Street Journal had earlier reported that the United States was considering the possibility of deploying troops withdrawn from Afghanistan in Central Asia. In particular, in Uzbekistan and Tajikistan. The American leadership has reportedly been exploring this possibility in order to “support the Afghan government, control the activities of the radical Taliban movement (banned in the Russian Federation) and monitor other extremists.”
Coincidentally both Tajikistan and Uzbekistan are members of the Russia-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) that has existed since 2002 to ensure the collective defence of any member that faces external aggression.
Its members require a consensus approval in case of military partnerships with non-members. Moreover, Uzbekistan also has a law that prohibits the creation of foreign military bases on the territory of the country.
In his blog, a Andrew Korybko had already predicted minimal chances of US troops’ redeployment to Central Asia after withdrawing from Afghanistan.
“Such a development would be evidence of a major power play by Uzbekistan if Tashkent were to agree to that but would risk suddenly reshaping Russia and China’s generally positive post-Karimov perceptions of the centrally located country. Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan would probably be under immense Russian pressure not to agree to host US troops unless Moscow reconsiders its stance about their true purpose and sees them as a factor promoting post-war stability in Afghanistan instead of instability in Central Asia,” Korybkov concluded.
Pakistan remains the only hope for US CT bases – something PM Khan and FM Shah Mehmood Qureshi already ruled out.
As a whole – given the US Democrats’ fiercely aggressive diplomacy against Russia and the unusual Sino-Pakistan proximity – the American quest for basing its counter-terror troops in the region to keep an eye on “terrorist havens in Afghanistan” faces an unusually tough challenge as of now. It represents a tight rope-walk for Pakistan as well.
