June 30, 2021
The commander of the U.S.-led mission in Afghanistan warned on Tuesday that Afghanistan could be on a path to a messy civil war as American and other international troops are ready to leave in the coming weeks.
While speaking at his last news conference at the headquarters of U.S. and NATO command in Kabul, he stated “Civil war is certainly a path that can be visualized if it continues on the trajectory it’s on,” adding that “This should be a concern for the world.”
Though some intelligence estimates claim that the Afghan government could collapse in six months to two years after the completion of American withdrawal, General Miller’s remarks were a window into the latest tension between the White House and the Pentagon.
For months, Pentagon leaders argued for some sort of lasting American military presence in Afghanistan, due to counterterrorism concerns and the need to provide a check on the Taliban’s development. President Biden’s response, in April, was final: All American forces except for an embassy garrison will be gone by September 11, 2021. The decision was backed by General Miller’s statement that the troop withdrawal was reaching a point where he would soon end his command, which began in September 2018, and in turn, say goodbye to Afghanistan.
Speaking about the US withdrawal, General Miller remarked that “From a military standpoint it’s going very well,” however, he did not propose a timeline for when the withdrawal will be complete. The Taliban, for the most part, have not attacked U.S. or international forces as they have departed, instead directing the brunt of the violence on the Afghanistan security forces and the civilians trapped in the conflict.
The remaining U.S. forces are spread between Kabul and Bagram Air Base, the extensive base that was once home to thousands of troops and service providers. Bagram is now the final gateway for moving out the troops and equipment that remain in the country.
About 650 U.S. troops are estimated to remain in Afghanistan to provide security for diplomats at the US embassy compound, American officials said last week.
It is worth mentioning that despite the U.S. military is inching closer to the exit, it is still providing what support it can to the Afghan security forces. But American support activities in Afghanistan are becoming less significant with every passing day as their presence and capacity to affect what happens on the battlefield in the country is shrinking.
The Biden administration has pledged to provide Mr. Ghani with financial support. That includes $266 million in humanitarian aid and $3.3 billion in security assistance, as well as three million doses of the Johnson & Johnson coronavirus vaccine and oxygen supplies.
And though international forces are leaving Afghanistan, NATO and the U.S. military will also continue to assist the Afghan security forces with training and logistics from outside the country.
© Center for Research and Security Studies (CRSS) and Afghan Studies Center (ASC), Islamabad.
