This report examines the evolving militant landscape in the Afghanistan-Pakistan region following the Afghan Taliban’s (TTA) return to power in August 2021. Contrary to initial hopes that the Taliban’s governance might stabilize the region, the threats have instead only intensified and introduced new complexities. Two primary actors—Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP)—now dominate the militant dynamics, each pursuing distinct yet equally destabilizing agendas.
This dramatic development was largely perceived as a potential turning point for regional stability. Optimists believed their rule might disincentivize violence among ideological allies and enable pragmatic governance. However, these expectations quickly evaporated – at least as far as Afghanistan’s neighbours are concerned .The Afghan Taliban’s radical world view, insistence on their brand of sharia as well as the ambivalence toward the TTP – and the stated reluctance to censure TTP for terrorist violence in Pakistan – threw up new challenges. In 2024, Pakistan experienced a dramatic 66% increase in terror-related fatalities, the highest in nearly a decade. This violence was concentrated in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan, which together accounted for over 90% of casualties.
A closer look at the two primary militant actors reveals their divergent but equally dangerous trajectories. The TTP, deeply rooted in Deobandi ideology, aims to establish an Islamic state in Pakistan. Benefitting from the Taliban’s sanctuary in Afghanistan, the group has exploited the porous border to regroup and intensify cross-border attacks. On the other hand, ISKP follows a rigid Salafi-jihadist doctrine with aspirations for a global caliphate. Unlike the TTP, ISKP prioritizes transnational jihad and employs brutal mass-casualty attacks targeting civilians, religious minorities, and rival Sunni factions, including the Taliban. This rivalry between TTP and ISKP reflects broader ideological and operational divergences within the region’s militant ecosystem.
The Taliban’s dual approach to counterterrorism—combating ISKP while tacitly supporting the TTP—further complicates the security landscape. While the Taliban view ISKP as an existential threat and have launched aggressive operations against the group, their reluctance to confront the TTP stems from ideological alignment and strategic considerations. This selective approach has strained relations with Pakistan, which continues to bear the brunt of TTP-led violence. At the same time, ISKP has taken advantage of the Taliban’s limited governance capacity to expand its influence, appealing to disillusioned jihadists with its uncompromising ideology.
To address these challenges, this report emphasizes the need for a shift away from purely military solutions. Pakistan needs a strategic clarity on the nature of threat that TTP poses. It also needs a quiet but forceful diplomacy with Kabul. Also, the country’s current deradicalization strategies, which often treat militancy as a monolith, fail to account for the distinct ideological, socio-political, and economic drivers of groups like the TTP and ISKP. A more nuanced approach is essential. Community-led initiatives that promote tolerance and trust, coupled with investments in education and infrastructure in vulnerable areas, can address grievances that militants exploit. Furthermore, regional collaboration is crucial. Strengthened intelligence-sharing and cross-border coordination can help counteract transnational threats, while international stakeholders must hold the Taliban accountable for fulfilling their commitments to curb terrorism.
Engaging with the Taliban-led Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan (IEA) presents a unique dilemma. On one hand, the Taliban have demonstrated effectiveness in targeting ISKP, reducing its operational capacity in urban centers like Kabul. On the other hand, their ideological alignment with the TTP undermines their credibility as counterterrorism partners. This duality has frustrated regional powers like China and Russia, and neighbours like Pakistan and Iran, who seek stability in Afghanistan to safeguard strategic interests. They have all urged the Taliban to take decisive action against terrorism, yet the Taliban’s reluctance to sever ties with militant allies continues to pose significant challenges.
The report concludes that sustainable regional security requires a balanced and inclusive approach. Immediate tactical responses, such as military operations and counterterrorism crackdowns, must be paired with long-term investments in governance, education, and socio-economic development. Stabilizing Afghanistan is critical to denying militant groups the safe havens they rely on. Equally important is fostering regional consensus, which aligns the counterterrorism priorities of Afghanistan’s neighbors with international efforts to combat extremism. Addressing the root causes of radicalization—poverty, political exclusion, and ideological indoctrination—is imperative to achieving lasting peace and stability.
Ultimately, the international community must navigate the fine line between engaging with the Taliban for counterterrorism cooperation and holding them accountable for inclusive governance and human rights. While addressing immediate threats is critical, a holistic and people-centric approach integrating counterterrorism into broader development frameworks offers the most promising path forward.
