April 7, 2020
If one is to summarise the situation emerging from Kabul as bad, it would be an understatement. A palpable gloom is settling in , the atmosphere is thick with rumours. Strangely the US and The Taliban appear , in statements , complimentary, while Kabul does not figure in it. The Ghani-Amrullah duo have in greater part, put an end to Zalmay Khalilzad’s peace effort , maybe just leaving a tiny space . Both of them at Kabul seem to have taken to heart that Dari saying , ‘Baa dum-e Sheyr Baazi Kardan’( To play with the Tail of the Lion) .
While it would be unfair to put the entire blame on Kabul yet the events that were required to follow the Doha signing were deliberately allowed to fall through the gaps. The US is unhappy with the turn of events. First Pompeo’s effort for an inclusive Government and a team to start the negotiations failed. The threat of holding back of funds did not work either. Then the announcement of the 21 member negotiating team was frowned upon and rejected by the Taliban . Az Dahanash Bue Sheer Mey -aayad ‘ ( the smell of milk comes from their mouth), calling it an ‘ Under Ninteen ‘ team, not one of substance amongst them.
Talks on release of prisioners began with fits and starts only to end abruptly. Kabul was of the view that it cannot release the names on the list as many of them were arrested on terrorism charges , that they had killed military and civilian personnels. Kabul will release those that they thought needed to be released. This was again rejected by the Taliban. Kabul fear that the released prisioners will boost the Taliban strength . This is exactly what the Taliban have in mind!
Ghani and Amrullah are showing tremendous false bravado. Amrullah is confident to raise funds to last them a couple of years without US support funding . India has pledged One Billion Dollars to save whatever years that is left to its influence with Kabul. It may work for a while but in the long run it is a disastrous policy to challenge a super power when oneself is confined to the Arg.
The surprising so called ‘arrest’ of Abdullah Orakzai by Kabul was again stage managed. Orakzai of the IS Khorasan group is in actual fact Amrullah Saleh’s asset. Orakzai’s frantic plea to be extricated because of being eliminated by the Taliban or the US , was passed on to Governor Kandahar Hayatullah . He managed the affair as part of an agreement , as the Afghans say ‘ Tasleem Shud’ Gave himself up. The Barbaric Sikh massacre game is being played out now.
The Taliban have made their plans. Inter Afghan dialogue though desirable looks too distant. The US knows that the peace deal is falling apart.
The Doha Taliban team is in itself under pressure. It appears that all the Mullahs were not on one page !! Changes and removals are being whispered .
A warrior force cannot sit idle for long, sooner than later they will start clearing the country side of most of the Military posts. The bulk will offer no resistance . The space for Ghani will shrink with each passing week. The US, I believe will not interfere as long as The Taliban leave them alone. US – Talib agreement to eliminate the ISKP and the A/Q elements is on course. Reports suggest that US has given a considerable amount in cash to the Taliban for this. The question arises what if the Taliban closes onto a major city ? The US understanding with Kabul appears that it may intervene to deny its fall . Kabul, Kandahar, Herat,Mazar and Jalalabad are major cities .
Major Airbases probably fall in this category . Otherwise the countryside is in a free for all type of scenario! One can only imagine what calamity is about to fall on the poor Afghan. Both the Taliban and Kabul leadership will be responsible for the carnage. The US in its haste to leave will allow it to happen. It will be a folly for any country to step in at this juncture to support some faction. The main focus for Pakistan, China, Russia and Iran must be to avoid a civil war, a khana jhangi erupting again. All influences must be used either jointly or individually. India is blind . It has not fathomed the damage it will do by clinging on to a failed strategy. Where does India see itself in the next Five years! The writing is clear. It will be fed up with the internal bickering at Kabul, it’s assets dispersed and discarded, contemplating whether it was worth it to interfere ! The present Afghan elders across the board leave much to be desired. With myopic vision, looking for short term gains and hungry for power, they are leading the Afghans to the abyss. ‘Jungle ke Aatish Gereft, Tar wa Khusk mesuzad’ when the jungle is on fire , both the wet and the dry will burn. This is about to happen, both the poor innocent and the criminal will suffer. The smell of fear and the dread of encirclement is ever pervasive in Kabul,ask any shopkeeper any worker any teacher. Time is of essence.
